Biome delineations based on low risk (best case) scenarios. Modeled biome based on the best case scenario: smallest predicted increases in temperature and changes in rainfall

Projected change in wheat(wh) productivity using the mechanistic crop growth model, DSSAT(ds) Band 1 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 2 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 3 - 88th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 4 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 5 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations.

Current delineations of the biomes in South Africa

Projected change in wheat(wh) productivity using the mechanistic crop growth model, DSSAT(ds) Band 1 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 2 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 3 - 88th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 4 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations. Band 5 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations.

Projected change in maize(mz) productivity using the mechanistic crop growth model, DSSAT(ds) Band 1 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations Band 2 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations Band 3 - 88th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations Band 4 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations Band 5 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations

Modeled biome based on the intermediate case scenario: middle of the range (median) predicted increases in temperature increases and changes in rainfall.

Images show the projected suitability by DSSAT (ds) models for maize, under simulations in which plant response to elevated CO2 was assumed to be enhanced (highco2). The images are expressed as a fraction of 18 scenarios, where 0 means all scenarios show no suitability, and 1 means all scenarios show suitability. The images are expressed as a fraction of 18 scenarios, where 0 means all scenarios show no suitability, and 1 means all scenarios show suitability.

Projected change in wheat(wh) productivity using the generalized additive model (gam) Band 1 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations Band 2 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations Band 3 - 88th percentile projected percent change in yield for enhanced CO2 response simulations Band 4 - 11th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations Band 5 - 50th percentile projected percent change in yield for unenhanced CO2 response simulations

Images show the projected suitability by DSSAT (ds) model for spring wheat (wh), under simulations in which plant response to elevated CO2 was assumed to be unenhanced (lowco2). The images are expressed as a fraction of 18 scenarios, where 0 means all scenarios show no suitability, and 1 means all scenarios show suitability.

Biome delineations under a high risk (worst case) scenario. Modeled biome based on the worst case scenario: temperatures at the highest end of those predicted by the 15 downscaled GCMs (90th percentile for temperature values) and rainfall values at the lowest end of the range predicted (10th percentile of rainfall values).